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Emmy Predictions: Drama Series – ‘Euphoria’ Is the Second-Most Nominated Drama, but Will It Actually Win?

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: Aug 5, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

“Euphoria” is the second most nominated drama series with 16, with the HBO show seeing a significant increase from its single-digit tally for the first season. With Zendaya looking like the front-runner in lead actress drama, the show dominated the social media and “watercooler” conversations when it aired, which could lead to multiple surprise wins, including other acting possibilities such as Sydney Sweeney, Martha Kelly and Colman Domingo. However, if there’s an HBO show to top the category, that looks to be “Succession” (for the moment).

Speaking of “Succession,” domination is an understatement when referring to the HBO drama winner of 2020. With 25 mentions, it’s the most nominated series of the year across all categories, including three directing and 14 acting noms, a record for any series in Emmy history. With Critics Choice and SAG wins under its belt, it’s the front-runner and could be unstoppable (unless others are seeking an alternative).  

Making history as the first non-English language series ever to be nominated, Netflix’s bloody spectacle “Squid Game” maxed out in all its possible nominations, capping at 14 for its kickoff season. The streamer is the reigning champ in this race, after sweeping in 2021 with “The Crown.” They look to extend that history-making presence with the most watched program in Netflix history. 

Wrapping its fourth season and the second most watched series in the history of Netflix, “Stranger Things” landed a respectable 13 nominations, the second most since its Emmy debut. While it’s likely to pick up plenty of the Creative Arts categories such as music supervision and visual effects, with no writing, directing or acting noms, it may prove too difficult to nab the big one. 

Showtime’s first drama nominee since “Homeland” in 2016, the first season of the mystery series “Yellowjackets” picked up seven noms including directing and two integral writing nominations. With actress Melanie Lynskey emerging as a dark horse to win lead drama actress, major wins tend to spill into other categories, including drama series. However, it’s the least nominated drama contender in the mix, and may not have the fuel to get it off the “Emmy Island.”   

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

Fourteen nominations for the inaugural season of “Severance,” the Apple TV+ dystopian drama had a respectable showing with names in the acting, directing and writing categories. As the first drama nominee for the streamer, and after a vibrant presence at San Diego Comic-Con, it could manage to duplicate the success of “The Handmaid’s Tale” in 2017 and win the big prize. Phase two campaigning will be key. 

The final season of “Ozark” nabbed a respectable 13 nominations, adding to its overall tally of 45 in its entirety. The crime drama ended had a satisfying conclusion, and with many of its actors contending to win their respective categories – Jason Bateman, Laura Linney, Julia Garner and Tom Pelphrey – it could be an acting branch favorite for the Netflix series.  

AMC’s “Breaking Bad” prequel has received an Emmy nom for each of its seasons. With the second half of the final season airing during voting, TV Academy members may feel inclined to check it off, along with its actors Bob Odenkirk and Rhea Seehorn, who are both in the mix. However, seven nominations in total may be too few to clear some of the louder contenders in the mix, with nearly four times as many noms. 

The complete television awards season calendar is linked here.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Oscars Predictions Hub

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.

2021 category winner: “The Crown” (Netflix)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Everett Collection

And The Nominees Are:
Rank TV Series Network Key Facts:
1 “Succession” HBO Key facts: 25 nominations in 2022, 48 total series nominations, the most of any series nominated. With 14 acting noms, it broke the record for most acting nominations for any series in Emmy history. It has won nine total Emmys thus far including outstanding drama series in 2020. HBO has the fourth most wins for drama series with seven, behind NBC (21), CBS (18) and ABC (9), and the highest for any premium cable network.
Jesse Armstrong (executive producer), Adam McKay (executive producer), Will Ferrell (executive producer), Frank Rich (executive producer), Kevin Messick (executive producer), Mark Mylod (executive producer), Jane Tranter (executive producer), Tony Roche (executive producer), Scott Ferguson (executive producer), Jon Brown (executive producer), Lucy Prebble (executive producer), Will Tracy (executive producer), Georgia Pritchett (co-executive producer), Ted Cohen (co-executive producer), Susan Soon He Stanton (supervising producer), Dara Schnapper (supervising producer), Gabrielle Mahon (produced by), Francesca Gardiner (consulting producer)
2 “Squid Game” Netflix Key facts: 14 nominations in 2022 for its first season including directing, writing and five for acting. Its the first non-English language series ever nominated. Netflix has won this category once with “The Crown” in 2021, sweeping all the major categories. It’s also the first streamer to land three drama series noms, in three separate years.
Kim Ji-yeon (executive producer), Hwang Dong-hyuk (executive producer)
3 “Severance” Apple TV+ Key facts: 14 nominations in 2022 for its inaugural season including directing, writing and four major acting categories. It’s the show from Apple TV+ to receive a nom for drama series.
Ben Stiller (executive producer), Nicholas Weinstock (executive producer), Jackie Cohn (executive producer), Mark Friedman (executive producer), Dan Erickson (executive producer), Andrew Colville (executive producer), Chris Black (executive producer), John Cameron (executive producer), Jill Footlick (co-executive producer), Kari Drake (co-executive producer), Adam Scott (producer), Patricia Arquette (producer), Aoife McArdle (producer), Amanda Overton (producer), Gerry Robert Byrne (producer)
4 “Ozark” Netflix Key facts: 13 nominations in 2022 for its final season. Has garnered 45 nominations in total across the entire series. The crime drama has won three Emmys including directing (drama) for Jason Bateman and two for supporting actress (drama) for Julia Garner.
Jason Bateman (executive producer), Chris Mundy (executive producer), Bill Dubuque (executive producer), Mark Williams (executive producer), Patrick Markey (executive producer), John Shiban (executive producer), Miki Johnson (co-executive producer), Laura Linney (co-executive producer), Erin Mitchell (supervising producer), Martin Zeimmerman (supervising producer), Paul Kolsby (producer), Laura Deeley (producer), Dana Scott (produced by)
5 “Yellowjackets” Showtime Key facts: Seven nominations for its inaugural season including directing, two writing noms and two major acting categories. It’s the first Showtime series to be nominated for outstanding drama since “Homeland” in 2016, and third overall (also includes “Dexter”).  Also the first of the three to have a female creator (Ashley Lyle, alongside Bart Nickerson).
Jonathan Lisco (executive producer), Ashley Lyle (executive producer), Bart Nickerson (executive producer), Drew Comins (executive producer), Karyn Kusama (executive producer), Liz Phang (co-executive producer), Jamie Travis (co-executive producer), Brad Van Arragon (co-executive producer), Sarah L. Thompson (co-executive producer), Ameni Rozsa (co-executive producer), Chantelle M. Wells (supervising producer)
6 “Stranger Things” Netflix Key facts: 13 nominations in 2022 for the seven episode fourth season (Vol. 1), the two episodes of Vol. 2 are not included in this submission. Its Emmy nom series total stands at 51, the most of the drama series that are nominated this year. It’s won seven Emmy statuettes so far. Network streamer Netflix has won drama series once with “The Crown” in 2020.
The Duffer Brothers (executive producer), Dan Cohen (executive producer), Shawn Levy (executive producer), Curtis Gwinn (executive producer), Iain Paterson (executive producer), Rnd Geiger (producer), Kate Trefry (producer), Paul Dichter (producer), Lampton Enochs (produced by)
7 “Euphoria” HBO Key facts: 16 nominations in 2022 for its second season. Stands at 25 total noms across the series history. Its won three prizes so far including lead actress (drama) for Zendaya, the youngest woman ever to win the race. With four total noms this year, Zendaya is the youngest producer ever nominated.
Sam Levinson (executive producer), Kevin Turen (executive producer), Ravi Nandan (executive producer), Drake (executive producer), Adel “Future” Nur (executive producer), Zendaya (executive producer), Will Greenfield (executive producer), Ashley Levinson (executive producer), Kenneth Yu (producer), Harrison Kreiss (producer)
8 “Better Call Saul” AMC Key facts: Seven nominations in 2022 for Part 1 of the sixth season which includes seven episodes. Part 2 that debuted on July 11 will be eligible in 2023. The series stands at 46 total noms but has yet to win a statuette yet. Currently tied for the third most noms for drama series with six.
Vince Gilligan (executive producer), Peter Gould (executive producer), Mark Johnson (executive producer), Melissa Bernstein (executive producer), Thomas Schnauz (executive producer), Gordon Smith (executive producer), Alison Tatlock (executive producer), Diane Mercer (executive producer), Michael Morris (executive producer), Ann Cherkis (co-executive producer), Trina Siopy (supervising producer), Bob Odenkirk (producer), Jenn Carroll (producer) and Jim Powers (produced by)

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Drama Series)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television’s most prestigious artistic award.

For wins: HBO’s “Game of Thrones” holds the record for most wins for a series in a single year with 12 (in 2015, 2016 and 2019), most collective wins for a drama series with 59 (across eight seasons), most wins for a single episode with six (for “Battle of the Bastards” in 2016) and most wins for a series and drama series in its final season with 12 (in 2019). “Game of Thrones” is also tied for most wins for outstanding drama series with four – along with “Hill Street Blues,” “L.A. Law,” “Mad Men” and “The West Wing.” “Hill Street Blues,” “Mad Men” and “The West Wing” won their four awards consecutively. “The West Wing” also holds the record for most wins in its first season with nine, while it shares the record for most wins for acting across an entire drama series at nine, along with “Breaking Bad” and “The Sopranos.” Netflix’s “The Crown” is the only series to sweep all the major categories in 2020, winning all four acting races, writing and directing.

Four shows have won this category three times: “The Defenders,” “Dragnet,” “Playhouse 90,” which all won consecutively, and “Upstairs, Downstairs.”

For nominations: “Game of Thrones” holds the record for most nominations overall for an entire drama series with 161. It also has the most nominations for a drama series in a single year and its final season with 32 (2019). AMC’s “Mad Men” holds the record for the most nominations without a win in a single year, going zero for 17 (in 2012). “NYPD Blue” holds the record for most nominations in its first season at 27 (in 1994), while “Law & Order” has the record for most nominations ever for an entire drama series at 11.

For networks, NBC has the most wins in this category with 21, with CBS following with 18. Hulu and Netflix are the only streaming services to win this category, with “The Handmaid’s Tale” in 2017 and “The Crown” in 2020.


2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.



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The Goldbergs Season 10’s Erica Storyline Hopes Addressed By Star

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The Goldbergs’ own Erica, Hayley Orrantia, explains what she wants her character to experience in the long-running show’s upcoming season 10.

Hayley Orrantia, star of ABC’s The Goldbergs, reveals what she hopes Erica will embark on in the show’s upcoming season 10. Based on the life of show creator Adam F. Goldberg, the series made its debut in 2013, to immensely positive reviews from audiences and critics alike. The Goldbergs follows the titular family in the middle of 1980s suburban America, following their individual pursuits in life while also showcasing their strength as a family. Alongside Orrantia, the show features a star-studded cast including Sean Giambrone, Patton Oswalt, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Troy Gentile, and Sam Lerner.

SCREENRANT VIDEO OF THE DAY

Orrantia’s Erica has previously become known as an antagonistic character throughout the series, refusing to get along with other members of the family and essentially becoming a mean girl. However, in recent seasons, her development has shown another side to the character that seems to be continuing. The Goldbergs season 9 finale, which aired in May, included a big surprise for Erica as well, as it’s discovered she’s pregnant.

In an appearance on The Art of Kindness podcast, Orrantia spoke all about the upcoming season of The Goldbergs and the direction in which her character could be heading. Specifically, the actress explained that she wants to see Erica go on to law school paired with her being a new mother. Read Orrantia’s full comments below:


I would like to see, despite her being a new mom, her going to school to become a lawyer. I would love to see them try to balance that because I think in the ’80s especially it became such a big thing for women to not only be great mothers, but that they could have a career of their own and really do both. I would love to see that balance for her not sacrificing the career and what she wants in that realm just because she’s a mom.

Based on Orrantia’s comments, it sounds like Erica could evolve even more in The Goldbergs season 10, at least if the actress’ wishes are honored. Since Erica’s immaturity and hostile attitude toward others is an aspect of her personality that has been on full display in previous seasons, this would be an exciting continuation of her storyline as the show nears its end. As Erica grows and undertakes new responsibilities, such as becoming a mother and pursuing further education, viewers could see the most mature version of the character yet in season 10.

While Orrantia doesn’t provide confirmation of what exactly Erica will experience in the new episodes, audiences can rest assured that her character arc and development will continue to soar. Furthermore, this new layer of writing could see her improve other relationships with those around her, including in her family. Erica’s career and journey as a parent will likely have ramifications on several of the show’s other characters, which will be exciting to watch. Viewers can catch The Goldbergs season 10 premiere when it airs on September 21, 2022.

Source: The Art of Kindness




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Here to Make Friends: Why Emmys Are Recognizing Positive Reality TV Over Dramatic Storytelling

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While saltier reality shows including Bravo’s “Real Housewives” franchise and HBO Max’s “FBoy Island” are still very much a thing — and very popular — there has also been a bumper crop of “nice” reality programming infiltrating the arena.

And, it turns out, Television Academy voters are fans. A look at the reality categories in this year’s Emmys race include Netflix’s A-for-effort baking competition series “Nailed It!,” the long-running, pride-focused VH1 series “RuPaul’s Drag Race” and both NBC’s mentorship musician series “The Voice” and its goofysweet crafts program “Making It.” Even the vibe of perennial Emmy nominee, Bravo’s “Top Chef,” comes with a message of respect for the artistry of cooking.

“Our brand is to do aspirational programming,” says Jo Sharon who, with Casey Kriley, is the co-CEO of production company Magical Elves and an exec producer on “Nailed It!” and “Top Chef.” “Across the board, we are always making sure that our shows are not mean-spirited. Pretty much any show, you can kind of take in that direction. But it’s really important to us that we’re telling more 360-degree aspirational stories inside it.”

A lot of this stems from the hosts. In Magical Elves’ programming, “Top Chef” has Emmy-nominated host Padma Lakshmi, who can be as sly with her humor as much as she is pragmatic about the challenges and contestants. “Nailed It!’s” Emmy-nominated host is comedian Nicole Byer, who, Sharon says, delivers laughs that are anything but mean-spirited.

“She is very celebratory. She truly loves to be on the set,” Sharon adds. “She doesn’t make fun of people.”

This is crucial, Sharon and Kriley stress, for a program about people who fail at re-creating Pinterest-worthy treats.

“If people were going to come on and be vulnerable and try to do something they weren’t good at, we knew that making fun of them was not going to be enjoyable to watch, be well-received or be anything we wanted to be part of,” Sharon says.

“Making It’s” Emmy-nominated hosts Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman have a running bit that they hate to send people home — so much so that the premiere of the third, and most-recent, season not only didn’t send any crafters packing but also introduced two more contestants to the workroom.

Executive producer Nicolle Yaron says Poehler, who executive produces the show through her Paper Kite shingle, pitched it to NBC development executives as, “I want you to picture a show with no stakes” and “I literally want to make a show about watching paint dry.” They bought it in the room. It also has a spinoff series, “Baking It,” on Peacock. The similarly whimsical baking series is hosted by the equally charismatic Maya Rudolph and Andy Samberg.

“Paper Kite’s ethos is that we love an earnest character, whether it’s scripted or unscripted,” says “Making It” executive producer Kate Arend, who is also that production company’s co-head of film and television. As she and Yaron are also executive producers of “Baking It,” the two say they hope to find a way for a crossover episode.

The push for positivity and the desire to help others shine can also affect casting. Obviously, “Making It” producers have a pre-show vetting period in which they eliminate artists even before they get to show off their work on screen.

This can weigh on your consciousness, Yaron says, noting that in casting it’s hard to decide who not to include since so many people deserve the spotlight.

“Sometimes the stories about real people are better than anything you can write,” she says, adding that she wants to be able to “show off that stay-at-home mom who is amazing at balloon sculptures.”

Padma Lakshmi in ‘Top Chef.’
David Moir/Bravo

Fun and positive shows also have the double reward of highlighting diversity and inclusiveness in a safe and welcoming setting. The most recent season of “Making It” spotlighted taxidermist Becca Barnet, who was open about her history with depression, and several “Top Chef” alums, including Season 15 and 16’s chef Brother Luck, have also spoken out about mental health. Yaron was also one of the first hires for “The Voice,” for which the producers made a “conscious choice” to call the aspiring musicians “artists’’ instead of “contestants.”

Meanwhile, every member of Magical Elves’ executive team is either female, BIPOC or queer and 75% of their shows’ casts are women and/or people of color, while 50% are openly members of the LGBTQ+ community.

“When we start casting, we’re looking for real people who have a lot of layers and have something to share with the world and and share with other people,” Kriley says. “What really drives the narrative in all our shows is to find those amazing people who are kind enough to participate in our shows and be open enough to really share their stories and their journey on the show.”

As with a lot of people, the Magical Elves team did some soul-searching during the pandemic and as the Black Lives Matter movement became more visible. Sharon and Kriley say, for “Top Chef” in particular, this meant looking at how they tell stories as much as who they hire, cast and the challenges they offer each episode. The results mean that “all of a sudden, we had more different types of cuisine and more interesting POVs from our guest judges based on their culture and history,” Kriley says.

“We don’t really consider it to be ‘nice’ television,” she says. “But everyone in their lives goes through challenges and, in particular, in a competition like this. And the greatest moments in our lives of feeling joy and success is when you go through a challenge, yourself, and come out the other end — I still feel like there’s moments of tension and conflict in the show. But it’s much more similar to an Olympic athlete who goes through the highs and lows at this level and comes out on top of it.”

It can be hard to find a uniform challenge on shows such as “Making It,” in which every artisan comes from a different discipline. Yaron says the mantra on both “Making It” and “Baking It” is “that the project is the story and the story is the project.” She says this means they “try to tell the story of who these people are by the decisions that they make to what the prompt is of a challenge,” such as a first love or greatest memory.

The warmth of these shows has also brought in a new demographic: children. The producers had stories of a younger audience finding their shows and parents feeling that these are programs they can watch with their kids.

Fittingly, the producers also stress that there’s plenty of room in the reality TV sandbox in which everyone can play.

“I do think people want to see the nice stuff more,” Arend says, referencing Netflix’s “Love on the Spectrum” docuseries about people with autism. “There are some really cool shows out right now that make you feel good and make you cry; maybe in a good way.”

But, she quips, “They better never stop making ‘Real Housewives.’”



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New MCU Villain First Look Revealed In Ironheart Show Set Photos

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New set photos for Marvel Studios’ upcoming Disney+ series Ironheart preview Anthony Ramos’ mystery villain, revealing his rather telling costume.

New photos from the set of Marvel Studio’s Ironheart offer the first proper look at the series’ villain, played by Hamilton star Anthony Ramos. The Disney+ series will be led by Dominique Thorne as Riri Williams. In the comics, Riri becomes the hero Ironheart, the spiritual successor to Tony Stark/Iron Man. Her series will premiere in the fall of 2023 as part of the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Phase 5 slate. However, audiences will first get a glimpse of Thorne in the Black Panther sequel, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, in November 2022.

The Ironheart series was announced by Marvel Studios President Kevin Feige in December 2020, and it was revealed to be a part of the MCU’s Phase 5 during the studio’s recent panel at San Diego Comic-Con, where Feige announced a slew of projects that will form the Multiverse Saga. Filming for the six-episode Ironheart began in Chicago in May and is expected to conclude in October. It will focus on Thorne’s Riri, who constructs her own version of the Iron Man armor and will look to carry on Tony Stark’s legacy after his death in Avengers: Endgame. Additional character details are being kept under wraps, but it just may be that Ramos’ mysterious villain has been revealed.

SCREENRANT VIDEO OF THE DAY

Ramos’ role in the series has yet to be officially confirmed, but new Ironheart set photos offer a good look at him in costume. Shared online by Just Jared (and posted to social media by Ironheart News), the images show Ramos wearing a striking red hood and cape. This seems to support the idea that the actor will be playing Parker Robbins, aka The Hood. In the comics, Robbins was originally a petty criminal in New York City, but gained superpowers after encountering a Nisanti demon and stealing its hood and boots.

Click here to see the original post.

The Hood doesn’t have much of a history with Ironheart in the comics, so his potential inclusion in the Disney+ show is intriguing. Of course, these set photos aren’t direct confirmation that Ramos is playing Robbins, but there is no denying that his costume looks rather similar to the comics imagery of the character. How he comes to be involved with Riri’s story has yet to be explained, but the eventual release of Ironheart plot details could perhaps shed more light on this.

With Riri appearing in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and seemingly beginning to construct her own armor with the help of Letitia Wright’s Shuri, it is likely that Riri will begin the series with an already-formed hero persona, as teased by additional Ironheart set photos. Still, she will likely be early on in her tenure, and The Hood could become the first major bad guy she’s ever fought. With Ironheart releasing before the Avengers’ double-header – Avengers: The Kang Dynasty and Avengers: Secret Wars – in 2025, Thorne’s role in the MCU will likely grow as she meets more of its heroes and becomes an integral member of the Avengers. She could end up fighting Kang the Conqueror someday, so a street-level villain like The Hood will be a good warmup for Riri.


Source: Just Jared (via Ironheart News)

  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2022)Release date: Nov 11, 2022
  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)Release date: Feb 17, 2023
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (2023)Release date: May 05, 2023
  • The Marvels/Captain Marvel 2 (2023)Release date: Jul 28, 2023
  • The Blade (2023)Release date: Nov 03, 2023
  • Captain America: New World Order (2024)Release date: May 03, 2024
  • Marvel’s Thunderbolts (2024)Release date: Jul 26, 2024
  • Fantastic Four (2024)Release date: Nov 08, 2024
  • Avengers: The Kang Dynasty (2025)Release date: May 02, 2025
  • Avengers: Secret Wars (2025)Release date: Nov 07, 2025




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